How William Saliba absence shows Arsenal won’t win the league

Arsenal defender, William Saliba is set to miss the crucial Premier League match against Manchester City on Thursday, and the Gunners’ defensive record without him is likely to encourage star City striker Erling Haaland.

Haaland has been in superb form this season, scoring 32 Premier League goals in just 28 games, and has been instrumental in City’s charge towards another league title. Pep Guardiola’s side have been in second place for much of the campaign, but a win against Arsenal would put them in pole position to win the title. City would be four points behind Arsenal with two games in hand, making the match a season-defining one.

However, Arsenal have been struggling with their form recently, letting two-goal leads slip against Liverpool and West Ham, drawing both fixtures. They then went 3-1 down against relegation-threatened Southampton at the Emirates Stadium on Friday, but recovered to draw 3-3.

Arsenal’s defence has been a major concern, particularly in the absence of Saliba, who has been out with a back problem since last month. A key statistic shows just how important the Frenchman has been to the team this season. As posted by The Athletic’s David Ornstein, Arsenal’s defensive record this season without Saliba is in stark contrast to their record when he plays.

The Gunners have conceded nine goals in their five league fixtures without the young centre-back, an average of 1.8 goals per game. This is double the amount of goals conceded when Saliba is in the team, with an average of only 0.9 conceded across the 27 times the Frenchman has worn an Arsenal shirt this term.

Before Saliba’s back injury, Arsenal had the second-best defensive record in the league, behind Newcastle. They have now conceded more goals than both City and Chelsea. But it is their comparative win rate that will concern Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta more.

With Saliba in the team, they have a 77.8 per cent win rate, compared to 40 per cent when he is out of the team. Their average points per game, meanwhile, drops from 2.4 to 1.8.

Arteta will be desperately searching for a way in which his side can secure a result against City without Saliba. However, the statistics show just how important the Frenchman has been to Arsenal this term, and Haaland and his teammates will be licking their lips at the prospect of facing a weakened Arsenal defence.