Nigeria’s crude oil production rises by 3.4% in August — OPEC

Nigeria’s average daily crude oil production saw a notable increase of 3.4% in August, reaching 1.352 million barrels per day (bpd), according to the latest data published by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

This marks a significant rise of 45,000 barrels per day from July’s production level of 1.307 million bpd, based on direct communication with Nigerian authorities.

Secondary sources reported an even higher average production figure for August, estimating Nigeria’s output at 1.448 million bpd. This represents an increase of 57,000 bpd compared to the 1.391 million bpd recorded in the previous month.

Nigeria solidified its position as Africa’s largest oil producer by a wider margin in August, benefiting from challenges faced by Libya, its closest competitor. Libya experienced production setbacks due to the shutdown of major oil fields during the month, further bolstering Nigeria’s standing in the continent’s oil production hierarchy.

OPEC’s Global Oil Demand Forecast Revised

The OPEC report also highlighted a revision in the global oil demand growth forecast for 2024. The cartel now projects a growth of 2.03 million bpd, down from the earlier estimate of 2.11 million bpd. For 2025, the global demand growth estimate was also lowered to 1.74 million bpd from 1.78 million bpd.

In August, oil prices experienced a decline across various benchmarks. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) dropped by $6.02, or 7.1%, averaging $78.41 per barrel. The ICE Brent front-month contract also saw a decrease of $5.00, or 6.0%, settling at $78.88 per barrel. Similarly, the NYMEX WTI front-month contract fell by $5.05, or 6.3%, averaging $75.43 per barrel, while the DME Oman front-month contract declined by $5.83, or 7.0%, to $77.54 per barrel. The spread between the front-month ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI widened by 5¢, reaching $3.45 per barrel.

Non-OPEC+ Supply Growth Outlook

OPEC’s report further projected that oil supply from non-OPEC+ countries will grow by 1.2 million bpd in 2024, consistent with the previous month’s assessment. The primary contributors to this growth are expected to be the United States, Canada, and Brazil. The forecast for non-OPEC+ liquids supply growth in 2025 remains steady at 1.1 million bpd, with the US, Brazil, Canada, and Norway leading the increase.

Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) are anticipated to grow by approximately 100,000 bpd, reaching an average of 8.3 million bpd in 2024. This is expected to be followed by an increase of around 60,000 bpd, reaching 8.4 million bpd in 2025.

In August, crude oil production from DoC member countries fell by 304,000 bpd compared to the previous month, averaging around 40.66 million bpd, according to available secondary sources. This decline highlights ongoing fluctuations in global oil supply and the challenges facing the oil-producing nations in maintaining steady production levels.