What Newcastle and Manchester United have both done to the EPL

The Premier League faces the imminent prospect of losing an additional Champions League spot for the upcoming season following the premature exits of Manchester United and Newcastle United from Europe’s elite competition.

The impending transformation of the Champions League in the 2024-25 campaign heralds a significant shift. With 36 clubs slated to participate, the tournament will pivot from the existing structure of eight groups of four teams to a singular league table format.

Under this revamped model, each team will engage in eight matches – a balanced blend of four home and four away fixtures against varied opponents.

The top eight teams at the culmination of this stage secure direct passage to the last 16, while those ranking between ninth and 24th proceed to a playoff round.

Dubbed ‘the Swiss model,’ UEFA’s adaptation of the format serves as a response to the thwarted concept of a European Super League, seeking to fortify the integrity of the existing competition.

A pivotal alteration involves the allocation of an extra place for the two top-performing leagues in Europe, contingent upon each association’s UEFA coefficient ranking for the 2023-24 season. For the Premier League, this translates to the potential acquisition of a coveted fifth spot in the Champions League.

Historically, the English top-flight would have frequently qualified for this additional berth in seven out of the past 11 seasons, based on the country’s coefficient ranking from the preceding season.

However, the untimely group stage exits of Manchester United and Newcastle now cast doubt on England’s eligibility for this coveted spot.

The Red Devils’ suffered a 1-0 defeat to Bayern Munich, culminating in a bottom-place finish in Group A, thereby missing out on a Europa League berth. Simultaneously, the Magpies faced a similar fate, succumbing to a 2-1 defeat against AC Milan and concluding at the foot of their group.

The current UEFA coefficient rankings for the 2023-24 campaign depict England in third place, boasting an average rating of 12.13, trailing behind Germany (13.36.500) and Italy (13.14).

These rankings are determined by aggregating points earned by all clubs in European competitions and normalizing them against the number of clubs representing that association.

Amidst this precarious scenario, Arsenal and Manchester City emerge as the Premier League’s beacon of hope for clinching the fifth Champions League spot, having emerged victorious in their respective group stages.

However, Germany and Italy’s robust representation across multiple European competitions, with three teams each progressing to the knockout rounds of the Champions League, alongside prominence in secondary tournaments, poses a formidable challenge to England’s aspirations.